Wednesday, October 08, 2008

The Way Things Look to Me...

I've been checking the state-by-state polls over at fivethirtyeight.com and usaelectionpolls.com (both sites aggregate scores of multiple polls taken in each state) on a daily basis and keeping tabs on the interactive electoral map at 270towin.com. From where I'm standing, it looks like nothing short of a catastrophe (a terrorist attack? a US or Israeli attack on Iran? some catastrophic event culminating in a Presidential declaration of martial law under the Patriot Act?) can keep Barack Obama from being elected the next President of the United States of America.
As I write this, Obama has a solid lead in 22 states -- and the District of Columbia -- accounting for 269 electoral votes (17 points in California, 7 points in Colorado, 17 points in Connecticut, 70 points in the District of Columbia, 21 points in Delaware, 33 points in Hawaii, 13 points in Iowa, 20 points in Illinois, 20 points in Massachusetts, 23 points in Maryland, 11 points in Maine, 8 points in Michigan, 10 points in Minnesota, 12 points in New Jersey, 9 points in New Mexico, 21 points in New York, 14 points in Oregon, 9 points in Pennsylvania, 20 points in Rhode Island, 25 points in Vermont, 13 points in Washington, 10 points in Wisconsin). Essentially, any other win in any other state would guarantee him the Presidency -- in other words, in order for John McCain to win, he has to win every other state beyond these solidly blue states. (click on the map for a larger image)

However, in addition to those solid states, there are another 5 states (Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia) where Obama is leading by 3-6 percentage points for an additional 69 electoral votes. A win in any of these states gives Obama the Presidency. A win in all of them would give him 338 electoral votes.

Even some toss-up states originally expected to go to McCain are moving in Obama's direction, and in a few of which Obama has taken the narrowest of leads (Missouri by about 1 point, Indiana by about a half point, North Carolina by about a point-and-a-half).


Here's how it looks to me right now, according to the state polls I've seen, and giving McCain the benefit of the doubt by leaving Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, and Florida as "undecided":
It's Obama 306/McCain 163.

1 comment:

Tiffany said...

My family in Colorado sent in their mail-in ballots this week. All voted for Obama. But it looks like Colorado isn't even considered a toss-up state anymore. That is telling, as are some of these other developments. It's just not looking good for McCain.