However, in addition to those solid states, there are another 5 states (Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia) where Obama is leading by 3-6 percentage points for an additional 69 electoral votes. A win in any of these states gives Obama the Presidency. A win in all of them would give him 338 electoral votes.
Even some toss-up states originally expected to go to McCain are moving in Obama's direction, and in a few of which Obama has taken the narrowest of leads (Missouri by about 1 point, Indiana by about a half point, North Carolina by about a point-and-a-half).
Here's how it looks to me right now, according to the state polls I've seen, and giving McCain the benefit of the doubt by leaving Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, and Florida as "undecided":
It's Obama 306/McCain 163.